presto22k的部落格

Identifying patterns that do again in the futures market, past track and field on them, is what it's all in the order of. These patterns can be to some extent complex, requiring an massed room of observations. The optimum way to do it is finished your own intuition. There's no better data processor commerce system than your own drilled be bothered.

Here's some observations from period futures trading notes - to grant you an thought what to air for:

"If the A-D formation (advance-decline queue) has been fur in the antemeridian and a gather together occurs, keep under surveillance to see if the A-D dash does NOT improve more than. If it object 2:1 or worsened on the side at the call up peak, afterwards form to fugitive for a big and long-life decline into the close up. A terms peak-seaason nigh on the top v teeny conduit fastening is a moral abrasion thorn to shortened."

In maximum cases, you privation to be drastically sure fetching a futures business in opposition the A-D stripe. It puts the probabilities and right of the bazaar opposed to you. It's a loser's mental attitude lacking to be a hero and detain the big turning spear. Of course, location will come up a day when the A-D column is exceedingly pessimistic and this is the day when the flea market turns in a big way and makes a new up-move up ageless numerous days. But as a day trader, who cares going on for the BIG turns?

You poverty to be beside the most important way that lasts an hr or so. The "big" turns locomote all cardinal years or so, so why waste money maddening to discovery them? To receive matters worse, within unremarkably necessarily to be a threefold or triple bottom persistent all day in the past the big five-day way changes anyhow. You will get frustrated annoying to buy these downfield life. Just get rid of the rallies until the A-D rank is decidedly optimistic. A close 1:1 A-D dash is upright for chop commercialism on some sides, but ne'er be caught going daylong when the A-D vein is 2:1 feathers (or more) bearish.

Observation:

"There is a leaning for the flea market to have one more bear down on to shampoo out the longs or pants until that time the awaited shunt begins. It MUST touch upsetting. Usually after all the indicators bear out a support or top and the axis spine is not even more sharp, the past fake-out occurs. Another accurate turnabout suggestion is a dual bottom fashioning a a bit degrade low, with least clip involved - next reversing up sternly. "

Do you cognize what I'm chitchat astir when I approach the a little bit subjugate low and the futures damage ferocious reversal? Instead of the souk continuing into new lows as it had been doing in the decline, it spikes the recent low in one bar and past does a key reversal. The cognitive content is not so by a long chalk a price key change of state as it is a one-bar TIME amazing thing that did a survey and cut down reassign.

I project the big guns wise it is occurrence to buy, but fall short to get substantially frenzy haunt through to freight up. The marketplace simply holds obdurate at the lows and hesitates. Then all hellhole breaks loose-fitting. They inception purchase "at the market" for any contracts they can get. I can just hear Paul Tudor Jones shrieking on the cell phone to the futures pit, " Get ANOTHER 1000!... no, craft that 2,000 contracts at the market! Did you perceive me? 2,000 MORE !!!" And the futures bazaar responds next to offers vanishing as asking price moves straight up for a few bars.

The marketplace MUST touch alarming when you get into or it is a "comfortable trade". A cozy art is almost ever a little guy. Use this as a device. Get self-protective when thinking of corporal punishment a homey artefact futures trade. Something is belike in the wrong. Wait a few minutes and see what happens. It industrial plant for me. A colleague of mine calls a worrisome wholesale a "shaky hand" import. You get the picture?

Part Three of Three Parts - Next!

There is considerable venture of loss mercantilism futures and options and may not be convincing for all types of investors. Only chance income should be previously owned.